---
title: "Texas Senate winner? — In 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/texas-senate-winner-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 24413048.98
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:53:02+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/texas-senate-winner-in-2026
---

# Texas Senate winner? — In 2026

Live · $24,413,049 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US

## About

This market covers the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas, resolving to the winner of the general race (including any run-offs) once major networks call it or official certification is completed. The two named contenders in the snapshot are Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with each platform structuring the contract slightly differently — Kalshi and Polymarket list the candidates by name, while Polymarket US frames them with explicit party labels.

Pricing is essentially a coin flip. On the party-tagged Polymarket US listing, Paxton (R) sits at 53.0% versus Talarico (D) at 51.0%. On Kalshi, Paxton trades at 52.0% and Talarico at 49.0%, while Polymarket flips the order, pricing Talarico at 51.0% and Paxton at just 49.0%. Aggregated across venues, Paxton is the narrow favourite at a 52.5% consensus.

The most notable dislocation is on the candidates themselves: Paxton is 3.0 points cheaper on Polymarket (49.0%) than on Kalshi (52.0%), and Talarico is correspondingly 2.0 points cheaper on Kalshi than on Polymarket. Across platforms, the race is priced close to a toss-up, with Paxton holding a slim edge overall but Polymarket leaning the other way.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-21; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico | 65% | 63¢ on Polymarket | 66¢ | 63¢ | 65¢ |
| Ken Paxton | 38% | 37¢ on Kalshi | 37¢ | 38¢ | 38¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1857?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5161?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/299643?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/texas-senate-winner-in-2026.

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