---
title: "Toronto vs Houston"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/toronto-vs-houston
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-08-04T00:10:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-11T00:10:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-08-04T02:44:31+00:00
total_volume_usd: 7084842.86
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T21:23:17+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/toronto-vs-houston
---

# Toronto vs Houston

Settled · kickoff 2026-08-04 00:10 UTC · $7,084,843 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Toronto Blue Jays** won. Settled 2026-08-04.

## About

This market covers the August 3 MLB series opener between the visiting Toronto Blue Jays and the host Houston Astros at Daikin Park, with both Kalshi and Polymarket listing the moneyline and a wide range of prop markets across totals, player hits, strikeouts, stolen bases, home runs, and first-five-innings outcomes. On the moneyline, Houston is the clear favourite at 59.0% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with Toronto checking in at roughly 41.0%–43.0% — a gap of around 16–18 percentage points. The first-five-innings market leans similarly, with Houston at 49.0% and Toronto at 38.0%, with a 14.0% tie probability reflecting the added uncertainty of a shorter sample.

Houston enters riding a six-game winning streak and an 11-of-12 run that vaulted them to first place in the AL West following a sweep of the Texas Rangers, and they carry that momentum into this three-game home set against Toronto. Cristian Javier (1-1, 7.17 ERA) draws the start for the Astros while Shane Bieber (2-2, 5.74 ERA) takes the ball for the Blue Jays — two pitchers with elevated ERAs, which likely explains why the total-runs markets tilt heavily toward the over, with 91.0% on Kalshi for over 4.5 runs. Toronto's lineup features Vladimir Guerrero Jr., listed day-to-day with a hamstring issue, adding injury uncertainty to the Blue Jays' side. Cross-platform spreads are minimal on most markets, with the moneyline showing just a 1.0-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket, making this one of the more consistent matchups in the data.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-04; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Toronto Blue Jays — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 14 outcomes
- Christian Walker: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Home Runs — 7 outcomes
- Hits — 11 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 15 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total Bases — 72 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 18 outcomes
- RBIs — 40 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- George Springer: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- George Springer: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Cristian Javier: Strikeouts O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Cristian Javier: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Cristian Javier: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Cristian Javier: Strikeouts O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Andrés Giménez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Andrés Giménez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Cam Smith: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Cam Smith: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jesús Sánchez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jesús Sánchez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Jose Altuve: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 29 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/156918?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/121109?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/toronto-vs-houston.

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