---
title: "Toronto vs San Francisco"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/toronto-vs-san-francisco-kalshi-81fa64e1
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-08T01:45:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-15T01:45:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-08T04:19:36+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5591822.6
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T19:51:58+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/toronto-vs-san-francisco-kalshi-81fa64e1
---

# Toronto vs San Francisco

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-08 01:45 UTC · $5,591,823 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Toronto Blue Jays** won. Settled 2026-07-08.

## About

The market covers the July 7, 2026 interleague matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and the San Francisco Giants at 9:45 PM ET, with Kalshi and Polymarket both hosting the moneyline plus a deep menu of derivatives (run totals, spreads, first-five innings, and individual player props for hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Rafael Devers, plus Giants starter Trevor McDonald's strikeouts).

Toronto is a razor-thin favourite on the moneyline at 52.0% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, with San Francisco pricing at 49.0% on Kalshi and 48.6% on Polymarket — a spread of just 0.4 points and effectively a coin flip once the vig is stripped out. The totals lean toward offence: Over 7.5 runs sits at 53.0% and Over 6.5 at 65.0%, consistent with a projected line around 7.5–8. Toronto is also favoured to outscore San Francisco in the first five innings (43.0% vs. 42.0% with a 16.0% tie), and Guerrero Jr. is priced at 70.0% to record a hit. On the Giants' side, McDonald is expected to strike out at least three (75.0%) but fade sharply beyond that, with 5+ Ks only 33.0%.The tightness of the market reflects a mid-season interleague scrap at Oracle Park between two sub-.500 clubs: Toronto enters at 42-49 while San Francisco sits at 38-52, with Trevor McDonald (3-6, 4.42 ERA) opposing Spencer Miles (4-1, 2.83 ERA). That pitching mismatch on paper explains Toronto's slight edge, but the Giants come off a 10-1 blowout of the Blue Jays in the series opener, which likely tempers Toronto's price. Layer in Oracle Park's suppressive factors for both left- and right-handed power, and the modest totals lines make sense. Across platforms, the moneyline is essentially identical on Kalshi and Polymarket, with only Guerrero Jr.'s hit prop and a handful of Kalshi-exclusive markets offering any meaningful divergence — a genuine coin-flip pricing environment with no clear favourite emerging on either book.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-08; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- Total Bases — 8 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 7 outcomes
- Home Runs — 4 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- RBIs — 4 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 10 outcomes
- Hits — 7 outcomes
- Casey Schmitt: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Victor Bericoto: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Victor Bericoto: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Yohendrick Piñango: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Yohendrick Piñango: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Toronto Blue Jays — 2 outcomes
- Spread -3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Total O/U 11.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 12.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 13.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 14.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 15.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 16.5 — 2 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 17 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- Casey Schmitt: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: San Francisco Giants — 2 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Drew Cavanaugh: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 35 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/3947?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/7899?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/toronto-vs-san-francisco-kalshi-81fa64e1.

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