---
title: "Toronto vs San Francisco"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/toronto-vs-san-francisco-kalshi-d6397299
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-07T01:45:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-14T01:45:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-07T03:59:40+00:00
total_volume_usd: 6976454.45
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:19:40+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/toronto-vs-san-francisco-kalshi-d6397299
---

# Toronto vs San Francisco

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-07 01:45 UTC · $6,976,454 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**San Francisco Giants** won. Settled 2026-07-07.

## About

This closed market's Jul 6, 2026 interleague game between the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park drew heavy prediction-market interest, spread across a Polymarket moneyline and roughly a dozen Kalshi contracts covering the full run line, totals, inning splits and player props for both Kevin Gausman and Landen Roupp, plus hitters like Rafael Devers and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Going into first pitch, the market clearly leaned San Francisco. The consensus moneyline settled at 91.5% for the Giants across Polymarket (99.8%) and Kalshi (99.0%), with the Blue Jays priced around 25% at the widest and just 0.4% on Polymarket by the end — a 15.5-point cross-platform spread that reflects late-resolution pricing rather than genuine disagreement. Kalshi's derivative markets echoed the same tilt: San Francisco was favoured to win the first 5 innings at 91.0%, to cover -1.5 through five at 80.0%, and to score 2+ runs at 99.0%, while the Over 2.5 total sat at 94.0%.

Those prices proved conservative. The Giants beat the Blue Jays 10-1 on July 6, 2026, an outcome that lines up with the context around Gausman, who hadn't won since April 26 across a stretch of 11 starts with a 5.87 ERA, and hadn't recorded a win since May 22. The start also marked Gausman's return to Oracle Park after leaving the Giants as a free agent, opening a three-game interleague series in San Francisco.

Across platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi agreed decisively on the Giants, with the only meaningful spreads appearing in thinly traded player props.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-07; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- Total Bases — 8 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 2 outcomes
- Outs Recorded — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 15 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 10 outcomes
- Home Runs — 4 outcomes
- Hits — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Spread — 4 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- RBIs — 36 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- First 3 Innings — 3 outcomes
- NRFI — 2 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4333?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5797?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/toronto-vs-san-francisco-kalshi-d6397299.

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