---
title: "Toronto vs Washington"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/toronto-vs-washington-kalshi-1c499300
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-07-28T22:45:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-08-04T22:45:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-07-29T02:59:42+00:00
total_volume_usd: 6360754.76
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Sports", "Baseball"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T20:31:16+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/toronto-vs-washington-kalshi-1c499300
---

# Toronto vs Washington

Settled · kickoff 2026-07-28 22:45 UTC · $6,360,755 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## Result

**Washington Nationals** won. Settled 2026-07-29.

## About

This is a July 28 MLB game at Nationals Park between the Washington Nationals (54–53) and the visiting Toronto Blue Jays (49–58). The moneyline market on Polymarket and Kalshi both peg the Nationals as the favourite at 57.0%, with the Blue Jays at 43.0%–44.0% — a negligible 1.0-point spread between the two platforms. The Nationals' home-field advantage is backed by the pitching matchup: Cade Cavalli starts for Washington with a 7–4 record and a 3.58 ERA, while Shane Bieber takes the mound for Toronto with a 2–1 record and a 4.70 ERA. Washington's edge also reflects broader offensive form — the Nationals have hit 19 home runs over the past 10 games.

Toronto won the series opener 3–2 the previous night, but markets still lean toward the home side rebounding tonight. The total-runs markets reflect high scoring expectations: Kalshi prices the over 2.5 runs at 98.0% and over 4.5 runs at 89.0%, consistent with Washington's pitching staff carrying a 4.76 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the season. The Cavalli strikeout prop on Kalshi — the single most-traded market at over $91K in volume — sits at 82.0% for 3+ strikeouts, signalling confidence in his performance despite the Blue Jays' win the night prior. DraftKings lists the Nationals as -143 moneyline favourites, broadly consistent with the 57.0% implied probability seen on both Polymarket and Kalshi, leaving virtually no exploitable cross-platform gap on the game winner.

_AI-written summary written 2026-07-28; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Total Runs — 11 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Winner: Toronto Blue Jays — 2 outcomes
- Team Total — 14 outcomes
- Spread — 6 outcomes
- First 5 Innings Total — 7 outcomes
- First 5 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Spread -1.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 9.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 6.5 — 2 outcomes
- Extra Innings — 2 outcomes
- Spread -2.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 7.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 8.5 — 2 outcomes
- Strikeouts — 14 outcomes
- Home Runs — 7 outcomes
- CJ Abrams: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total Bases — 14 outcomes
- RBIs — 8 outcomes
- Hits + Runs + RBIs — 15 outcomes
- Hits — 11 outcomes
- Stolen Bases — 4 outcomes
- First 7 Innings — 3 outcomes
- Total O/U 10.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 11.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -4.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 12.5 — 2 outcomes
- Spread -5.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 13.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 14.5 — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 15.5 — 2 outcomes
- Alejandro Kirk: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- Alejandro Kirk: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- James Wood: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- James Wood: Home Runs O/U 1.5 — 2 outcomes
- José Tena: Home Runs O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 38 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/102061?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/78400?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/toronto-vs-washington-kalshi-1c499300.

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