---
title: "Tsarukyan vs Ruffy"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/tsarukyan-vs-ruffy
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-09-20T02:30:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-09-20T06:30:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-09-20T06:00:55+00:00
total_volume_usd: 14529502.14
venues: ["Azuro", "Kalshi", "Polymarket", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Sports", "MMA"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:17:42+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/tsarukyan-vs-ruffy
---

# Tsarukyan vs Ruffy

Settled · kickoff 2026-09-20 02:30 UTC · $14,529,502 traded · listed on Azuro, Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US

## Result

**Arman Tsarukyan** won. Settled 2026-09-20.

## About

The Tsarukyan vs. Ruffy market covers the UFC 331 lightweight main-card bout between Arman Tsarukyan and Mauricio Ruffy, scheduled for September 19, 2026. Head-to-head markets resolve to whichever fighter is officially declared the winner, with draws, no contests, or cancellations beyond October 3 resolving 50-50. Alongside the straight winner market, Kalshi lists derivative markets for method of victory, round of finish, and method of finish, while Azuro offers over/under lines on total rounds.

Tsarukyan is the clear favourite at a consensus 73.5%, priced almost identically across venues: Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 73.0%, Polymarket US 73.0%, and Azuro slightly higher at 74.6%. Ruffy sits at 27.5% consensus, ranging from 26.5% on Polymarket to 28.9% on Azuro. A draw or no contest is priced at just 1.5% on Kalshi. On the derivatives, Kalshi has KO/TKO/DQ as the most likely method at 49.5%, submission at 31.5%, and decision at 23.0%, with the fight ending before round 5 at 64.5% and before round 3 at 39.0%. Tsarukyan by submission (29.5%) is the single most likely finish path.

Cross-platform pricing on the headline winner market is tightly aligned, with only about two points separating the highest and lowest quotes on Tsarukyan.

_AI-written summary written 2026-09-19; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Go the Distance — 2 outcomes
- Decision / Draw / No Contest — 2 outcomes
- Round of Victory — 11 outcomes
- Round of Finish — 4 outcomes
- Method of Victory — 7 outcomes
- Method of Finish — 4 outcomes
- Decision — 2 outcomes
- Fight to Go the Distance? — 2 outcomes
- KO/TKO/DQ — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Submission — 2 outcomes
- Tsarukyan to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Draw — 2 outcomes
- Ruffy to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- A. Tsarukyan by Decision — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by submission? — 2 outcomes
- A. Tsarukyan by KO/TKO/DQ — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- A. Tsarukyan by Submission — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 1.5 — 4 outcomes
- M. Ruffy by Decision — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 4 outcomes
- M. Ruffy by KO/TKO/DQ — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- M. Ruffy by Submission — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 4 outcomes
- Fight ends before Round 2 begins — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by decision? — 2 outcomes
- Fight ends before Round 3 begins — 2 outcomes
- Ends before Round 2? — 2 outcomes
- Fight ends before Round 4 begins — 2 outcomes
- Ends before Round 3? — 2 outcomes
- Fight ends before Round 5 begins — 2 outcomes
- Ends before Round 4? — 2 outcomes
- Tsarukyan in Round 1 — 2 outcomes
- Ends before Round 5? — 2 outcomes
- Tsarukyan in Round 2 — 2 outcomes
- Tsarukyan in Round 3 — 2 outcomes
- Tsarukyan in Round 4 — 2 outcomes
- Tsarukyan in Round 5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 6 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Azuro](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/570712?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/451196?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/448782?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/306350?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/tsarukyan-vs-ruffy.

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