---
title: "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-october-31
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 19165.39
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:34:21+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-october-31
---

# Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

Live · $19,165 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.

Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.

The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. 

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98% | 99¢ on Polymarket | 99¢ |
| Yes | 2% | 1.9¢ on Polymarket | 1.9¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/357825?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-october-31.

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