---
title: "US bank failure by December 31, 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/us-bank-failure-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-9985b90f
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1413.41
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:48:28+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-bank-failure-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-9985b90f
---

# US bank failure by December 31, 2026?

Live · $1,413 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 62% | 69¢ on Polymarket | 69¢ |
| Yes | 39% | 46¢ on Polymarket | 46¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/654849?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-bank-failure-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-9985b90f.

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