---
title: "US defaults on debt by 2027?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/us-defaults-on-debt-by-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 18474.09
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T20:28:22+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-defaults-on-debt-by-2027
---

# US defaults on debt by 2027?

Live · $18,474 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. 

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98% | 99¢ on Polymarket | 99¢ |
| Yes | 2% | 2.8¢ on Polymarket | 2.8¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/6492?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-defaults-on-debt-by-2027.

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