---
title: "US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/us-effective-tariff-rate-for-q2-2026
status: ended
trading_closes_at: 2026-07-30T23:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 14746.33
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-11T10:44:38+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-effective-tariff-rate-for-q2-2026
---

# US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?

Ended · $14,746 traded · listed on Polymarket

## Result

Delisted by every venue without a result — this event will not resolve.

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. 

In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". 

Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error). 

The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## 9%+

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | — | — | 2¢ |
| No | — | — | 98¢ |

## Other markets

- 5%+ — 2 outcomes
- 6%+ — 2 outcomes
- 7%+ — 2 outcomes
- 8%+ — 2 outcomes
- 10%+ — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/88147?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-effective-tariff-rate-for-q2-2026.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.