---
title: "US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/us-effective-tariff-rate-for-q3-2026-q3-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-29T12:29:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 10175.06
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:17:52+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-effective-tariff-rate-for-q3-2026-q3-2026
---

# US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026

Live · $10,175 traded · listed on Kalshi

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3% | 79% | 97¢ on Kalshi | 97¢ |
| Above 4% | 79% | 97¢ on Kalshi | 97¢ |
| Above 5% | 79% | 97¢ on Kalshi | 97¢ |
| Above 6% | 89% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| Above 7% | 95% | 95¢ on Kalshi | 95¢ |
| Above 8% | 35% | 48¢ on Kalshi | 48¢ |
| Above 9% | 11% | 19¢ on Kalshi | 19¢ |
| Above 10% | 8% | 13¢ on Kalshi | 13¢ |
| Above 11% | — | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Above 12% | — | — | — |
| Above 13% | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/127404?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-effective-tariff-rate-for-q3-2026-q3-2026.

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