---
title: "US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by
status: settled
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-10-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3815141.43
venues: ["Limitless", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-08T01:02:24+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by
---

# US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

Settled · $3,815,141 traded · listed on Limitless, Polymarket

## Result

Voided — no outcome won. Settled 2026-10-01.

## About

This market asks whether the United States and Iran will announce a diplomatic agreement over vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by a specified date. To resolve "Yes," both governments must accept the same qualifying instrument — a treaty, deal, or similar arrangement establishing Iranian commitments to permit, restore, or increase shipping through the strait — with acceptance announced by 11:59 PM ET on the deadline. The event window runs through October 1, 2026, and has drawn roughly $1.27 million in volume, almost entirely on Polymarket, with Limitless also carrying a listing.

The consensus strongly favours "No," priced at 96.8% across platforms, against just 3.3% for "Yes." Polymarket alone shows "No" at 96.5% and "Yes" at 3.2%, while Limitless prices a September 30 deadline variant at 3.3%. A separate Limitless line tied to an August 31 date sits at 50.0%, though that reading appears isolated and lacks a cross-platform consensus reference.

The favourite is decisive: traders assign only a low-single-digit chance to any qualifying US-Iran Hormuz agreement being announced within the window. Cross-platform pricing on the headline outcomes is essentially aligned, with no material spread between Polymarket and Limitless on the shared contracts.

_AI-written summary written 2026-09-19; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- August 15 — 2 outcomes
- main — 0 outcomes
- October 31 — 2 outcomes
- October 15 — 2 outcomes
- November 30 — 2 outcomes
- October 7 — 2 outcomes
- November 2 — 2 outcomes
- November 6 — 2 outcomes
- August 31 — 2 outcomes
- September 15 — 2 outcomes
- September 30 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Limitless](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/570276?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/171646?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-by).

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