---
title: "U.S. nuclear test by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/us-nuclear-test-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 800637.01
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T05:57:07+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-nuclear-test-by
---

# U.S. nuclear test by...?

Live · $800,637 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. 

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31, 2026

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5.3¢ on Polymarket | 5.3¢ |
| No | 96% | 97¢ on Polymarket | 97¢ |

## Other markets

- March 31, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- June 30, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- September 30, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- November 30 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/312195?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-nuclear-test-by.

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