---
title: "US retail jobs added this holiday season — September–December 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/us-retail-jobs-added-this-holiday-season-september-december-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-08T13:29:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1579.01
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:43:20+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-retail-jobs-added-this-holiday-season-september-december-2026
---

# US retail jobs added this holiday season — September–December 2026

Live · $1,579 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All employees, retail trade” series (CEU4200000001).

The expiration value is the first published December 2026 level, converted from thousands to individual jobs, minus the fixed September baseline of 15,378,400 jobs. The initial December estimate is used even if labeled preliminary. Later corrections, revisions, and benchmark updates to either month are ignored. No additional rounding applies.

The measure includes seasonal and nonseasonal jobs and reflects net employment growth, not gross hires or announced hiring plans.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 300,000 jobs | — | — | — |
| Above 350,000 jobs | — | — | — |
| Above 400,000 jobs | 81% | 81¢ on Kalshi | 81¢ |
| Above 450,000 jobs | 51% | 51¢ on Kalshi | 51¢ |
| Above 500,000 jobs | — | — | — |
| Above 550,000 jobs | — | — | — |
| Above 600,000 jobs | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/721317?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-retail-jobs-added-this-holiday-season-september-december-2026.

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