---
title: "US strike on Colombia by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/us-strike-on-colombia-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2236991.37
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T07:04:42+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-strike-on-colombia-by
---

# US strike on Colombia by...?

Live · $2,236,991 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 26¢ on Polymarket | 26¢ |
| No | 75% | 76¢ on Polymarket | 76¢ |

## Other markets

- January 31 — 2 outcomes
- March 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/675506?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-strike-on-colombia-by.

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