---
title: "U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-december-31-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 9836.19
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T07:15:11+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-december-31-2026
---

# U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?

Live · $9,836 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).

Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5% | 8% | 8.5¢ on Polymarket | 8.5¢ |
| 5–15% | 79% | 79¢ on Polymarket | 79¢ |
| 15–25% | 8% | 8¢ on Polymarket | 8¢ |
| 25–35% | 4% | 6¢ on Polymarket | 6¢ |
| 35%+ | 2% | 2.9¢ on Polymarket | 2.9¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/598412?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-december-31-2026.

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