---
title: "US trade deficit for 2031"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/us-trade-deficit-for-2031
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2032-02-02T13:29:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:00:55+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-trade-deficit-for-2031
---

# US trade deficit for 2031

Live · $2 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.

Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.

Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2031. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $1.0 trillion | — | — | — |
| Above $1.1 trillion | — | — | — |
| Above $1.2 trillion | — | — | — |
| Above $500 billion | — | — | — |
| Above $600 billion | — | — | — |
| Above $700 billion | — | — | — |
| Above $800 billion | — | — | — |
| Above $900 billion | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/394073?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-trade-deficit-for-2031.

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