---
title: "US Trade Deficit in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/us-trade-deficit-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-05-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 24948.78
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T14:46:30+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-trade-deficit-in-2026
---

# US Trade Deficit in 2026?

Live · $24,949 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.

Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases

The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.

Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 700–800B | 21% | 27¢ on Polymarket | 27¢ |
| 900B–1T | 14% | 20¢ on Polymarket | 20¢ |
| 600–700B | 10% | 14¢ on Polymarket | 14¢ |
| 500–600B | 5% | 7.4¢ on Polymarket | 7.4¢ |
| 1T–1.1T | 4% | 6.7¢ on Polymarket | 6.7¢ |
| <500B | 3% | 3.6¢ on Polymarket | 3.6¢ |
| 1.1T+ | 2% | 3.7¢ on Polymarket | 3.7¢ |
| 800–900B | — | 62¢ on Polymarket | 62¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/6265?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-trade-deficit-in-2026.

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