---
title: "U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 663072.84
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:33:49+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by
---

# U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

Live · $663,073 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between August 14, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 9.4¢ on Polymarket | 9.4¢ |
| No | 92% | 94¢ on Polymarket | 94¢ |

## Other markets

- February 4 — 2 outcomes
- June 30 — 2 outcomes
- July 31 — 2 outcomes
- September 30 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/312196?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/us-x-russia-nuclear-deal-by.

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