---
title: "van vs Pantoja"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/van-vs-pantoja
status: settled
kickoff_at: 2026-09-20T03:15:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-04T02:30:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-09-20T06:30:44+00:00
total_volume_usd: 27493220
venues: ["Azuro", "Kalshi", "Polymarket", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Sports", "MMA"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:17:31+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/van-vs-pantoja
---

# van vs Pantoja

Settled · kickoff 2026-09-20 03:15 UTC · $27,493,220 traded · listed on Azuro, Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US

## Result

**Joshua van** won. Settled 2026-09-20.

## About

UFC 331's flyweight main event between champion Alexandre Pantoja and challenger Joshua Van is one of the more widely listed MMA fights across prediction markets, with roughly $2.4M in aggregate volume — the bulk of it sitting on Kalshi's headline winner market ($1.85M) and Polymarket's equivalent ($229K), alongside smaller Kalshi books on method, round, and round-of-finish, plus an Azuro listing.

Van is the narrow favourite to win, priced at a 58.8% consensus. Individual platforms cluster tightly: Azuro 58.8%, Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 58.0%, and Polymarket US at 57.0%, a 2.3-point spread. Pantoja sits at a 45.5% consensus, with Azuro highest at 45.5% and Polymarket lowest at 41.5% — a 3.95-point gap, the widest on the headline outcome. On method, Kalshi has Decision/Draw/No Contest at 37.0%, KO/TKO/DQ at 44.0%, and Submission at 30.0%, with Pantoja by submission (24.0%) and Van by KO/TKO/DQ (34.0%) the most likely specific finishes. The fight ending before round 5 trades at 56.0% on Kalshi.

The cross-platform takeaway: books broadly agree Van is a slight favourite around 58%, with Polymarket pricing Pantoja a few points cheaper than Azuro or Kalshi.

_AI-written summary written 2026-09-19; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Other markets

- Go the Distance — 2 outcomes
- Draw — 2 outcomes
- J. Van by KO/TKO/DQ — 2 outcomes
- Round of Victory — 11 outcomes
- Method of Victory — 7 outcomes
- Round of Finish — 4 outcomes
- Method of Finish — 4 outcomes
- Decision — 2 outcomes
- Fight to Go the Distance? — 2 outcomes
- KO/TKO/DQ — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- Submission — 2 outcomes
- Pantoja to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- J. Van by Decision — 2 outcomes
- Van to win by KO/TKO? — 2 outcomes
- J. Van by Submission — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by submission? — 2 outcomes
- A. Pantoja by Decision — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 0.5 — 2 outcomes
- A. Pantoja by KO/TKO/DQ — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 1.5 — 4 outcomes
- A. Pantoja by Submission — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 2.5 — 4 outcomes
- Fight ends before Round 2 begins — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 3.5 — 2 outcomes
- Fight ends before Round 3 begins — 2 outcomes
- Total O/U 4.5 — 4 outcomes
- Fight ends before Round 4 begins — 2 outcomes
- Fight won by decision? — 2 outcomes
- Fight ends before Round 5 begins — 2 outcomes
- Ends before Round 2? — 2 outcomes
- Decision / Draw / No Contest — 2 outcomes
- Ends before Round 3? — 2 outcomes
- Van in Round 1 — 2 outcomes
- Ends before Round 4? — 2 outcomes
- Van in Round 2 — 2 outcomes
- Ends before Round 5? — 2 outcomes
- Van in Round 3 — 2 outcomes
- Van in Round 4 — 2 outcomes
- Van in Round 5 — 2 outcomes
- … and 6 more

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Azuro](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/570714?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/451607?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/448784?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/306349?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/van-vs-pantoja.

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