---
title: "Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/vesuvius-eruption-with-1-vei-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 669.56
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:23:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/vesuvius-eruption-with-1-vei-in-2026
---

# Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?

Live · $670 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).

This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.

If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | — | — | — |
| No | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/7785?via=md)

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Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/vesuvius-eruption-with-1-vei-in-2026.

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