---
title: "Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place? — in 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/victoria-parliamentary-election-3rd-place-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-28T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 18013.34
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:28:54+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/victoria-parliamentary-election-3rd-place-in-2026
---

# Victoria parliamentary election: 3rd place? — in 2026

Live · $18,013 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. A seat is won when the candidate is declared elected by the electoral authority and either the challenge period has expired, legal challenges are resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is based on the party under which the candidate was elected, regardless of later changes. In case of ties for a rank, all tied parties at that rank resolve to Yes with values split proportionally. If a ranking is skipped due to ties (e.g., two parties tie for #1, next is #3), markets for the skipped rank (#2) resolve to No. Unlisted parties or groupings count toward rankings and the tie denominator; if only unlisted parties occupy third place, all listed markets resolve to No.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| One Nation | 61% | 64¢ on Kalshi | 64¢ |
| Nationals | 11% | 16¢ on Kalshi | 16¢ |
| Greens | 9% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ |
| Labor | 9% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ |
| Liberal | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Victorian Socialists | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/487310?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/victoria-parliamentary-election-3rd-place-in-2026.

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