---
title: "What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 9, 2026? — Worldwide on Oct 9, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/what-will-the-biggest-earthquake-be-on-oct-9-2026-worldwide-on-oct-9-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-09T23:59:59+00:00
total_volume_usd: 11571.06
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:44:14+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/what-will-the-biggest-earthquake-be-on-oct-9-2026-worldwide-on-oct-9-2026
---

# What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 9, 2026? — Worldwide on Oct 9, 2026

Live · $11,571 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magnitude of at least 5.2 | — | — | — |
| Magnitude of at least 5.4 | — | — | — |
| Magnitude of at least 5.6 | — | — | — |
| Magnitude of at least 5.8 | — | — | — |
| Magnitude of at least 6.0 | 16% | 18¢ on Kalshi | 18¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.2 | 9% | 10¢ on Kalshi | 10¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.4 | 7% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.6 | 4% | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 6.8 | 3% | 3¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ |
| Magnitude of at least 7.0 | 3% | 3¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/766308?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/what-will-the-biggest-earthquake-be-on-oct-9-2026-worldwide-on-oct-9-2026.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.