---
title: "What will the biggest earthquake be on October 9, 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/what-will-the-biggest-earthquake-be-on-october-9-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 0
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:47:54+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/what-will-the-biggest-earthquake-be-on-october-9-2026
---

# What will the biggest earthquake be on October 9, 2026?

Live · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 9, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.

Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 9, 2026. An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time.

Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column.

If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 10, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.

If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.

If no earthquake data for October 9, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 10, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket.

The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.3 | — | — | — |
| 5.3 to 5.4 | — | — | — |
| 5.5 to 5.6 | — | — | — |
| 5.7 to 5.8 | — | — | — |
| 5.9 to 6.0 | — | — | — |
| 6.1 or more | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/770356?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/what-will-the-biggest-earthquake-be-on-october-9-2026.

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