---
title: "What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-04-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 75944.62
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:22:39+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino
---

# What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?

Live · $75,945 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms.

This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "Over 2.5" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window.

The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ |
| 1.5–2.0 | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | 0.2¢ |
| 2.0–2.25 | 2% | 4.3¢ on Polymarket | 4.3¢ |
| 2.25–2.5 | 15% | 16¢ on Polymarket | 16¢ |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 83¢ on Polymarket | 83¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/275557?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino.

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