---
title: "When will Canada raise tariffs on the US? — Canadian tariffs on the US"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/when-will-canada-raise-tariffs-on-the-us-canadian-tariffs-on-the-us
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 4612.46
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:15:09+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-canada-raise-tariffs-on-the-us-canadian-tariffs-on-the-us
---

# When will Canada raise tariffs on the US? — Canadian tariffs on the US

Live · $4,612 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Only reporting from the Prime Minister of Canada qualifies for the purposes of this market. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

The publication must expressly commit Canada to impose a new Canadian tariff or increase an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods. It must be an official speech, statement, or press release issued personally or in the prime minister's name. A specified future effective date qualifies.

Minister- or agency-only announcements, negotiating objectives, noncommittal statements of intent that do not expressly commit Canada, general aspirations, preliminary discussions, threats, conditional proposals, and the automatic activation or expiry of a previously announced measure do NOT qualify. A new decision to reimpose a previously removed tariff or increase an existing tariff qualifies. Reports merely referencing publications before Issuance do NOT qualify unless they explicitly reaffirm a qualifying new decision made after Issuance.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | — | 88¢ on Kalshi | 88¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | — | — | — |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | — | 50¢ on Kalshi | 50¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/496252?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-canada-raise-tariffs-on-the-us-canadian-tariffs-on-the-us.

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