---
title: "When will Gemini Carbon be released?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-04T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 212412.62
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:13:17+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released
---

# When will Gemini Carbon be released?

Live · $212,413 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.

A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 9–November 15 | 79% | 79¢ on Polymarket | 79¢ |
| November 16–November 22 | 17% | 18¢ on Polymarket | 18¢ |
| November 23–November 29 | 3% | 5.2¢ on Polymarket | 5.2¢ |
| November 2–November 8 | 3% | 4.8¢ on Polymarket | 4.8¢ |
| November 30–December 6 | 2% | 3.6¢ on Polymarket | 3.6¢ |
| December 7–December 13 | 0.2% | 0.3¢ on Polymarket | 0.3¢ |
| No release by January 3 | 0.2% | 0.3¢ on Polymarket | 0.3¢ |
| Prior to November 2 | — | — | — |
| December 14–December 20 | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ |
| December 21–December 27 | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ |
| December 28–January 3 | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1040416?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-gemini-carbon-be-released).

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