---
title: "When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? — Corporate announcement"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/when-will-tesla-and-spacex-merge-corporate-announcement
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1326954.55
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Markets", "Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:17:13+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-tesla-and-spacex-merge-corporate-announcement
---

# When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? — Corporate announcement

Live · $1,326,955 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity.

This market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced.

A statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negotiation update, or a speculative comment about a future combination.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 63% | 63¢ on Kalshi | 63¢ |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 39% | 41¢ on Kalshi | 41¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 34% | 36¢ on Kalshi | 36¢ |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 30% | 31¢ on Kalshi | 31¢ |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 20% | 21¢ on Kalshi | 21¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 14% | 16¢ on Kalshi | 16¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 5% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 3% | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | — | — | — |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | — | — | — |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | — | — | — |
| Before May 1, 2026 | — | — | — |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | — | — | — |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1169?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-tesla-and-spacex-merge-corporate-announcement.

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