---
title: "When will the Bitcoin halving occur?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/when-will-the-bitcoin-halving-occur
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-07-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 107.56
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Crypto"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:39:39+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-the-bitcoin-halving-occur
---

# When will the Bitcoin halving occur?

Live · $108 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next Bitcoin halving occurs by the date specified in the title, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The next Bitcoin halving refers to the mining of Bitcoin block 1,050,000, the block at which the Bitcoin network’s block subsidy is next scheduled to be reduced by half.

The resolution source is mempool.space (https://mempool.space), specifically the “Timestamp” value displayed on the page for block 1,050,000 once it has been mined, converted to Eastern Time. For an example of where the “Timestamp” value is displayed on a block’s page, see this earlier block: https://mempool.space/block/00000000000000000001e019fb455cb292d5ba5b41ebfad92ab4e0f378e83d25.

This market is based solely on the “Timestamp” value displayed on mempool.space for block 1,050,000, not on network propagation or observation times, data from third-party explorers, or unofficial sources.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source, such as another Bitcoin block explorer, or public data consistent with the Bitcoin blockchain.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## March 31, 2028

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49% | 89¢ on Polymarket | 89¢ |
| No | 51% | 91¢ on Polymarket | 91¢ |

## Other markets

- June 30, 2028 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/417670?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-the-bitcoin-halving-occur.

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