---
title: "When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/when-will-the-first-useful-quantum-computer-be-developed-quantum-computer
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2040-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 46051.22
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:58:41+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-the-first-useful-quantum-computer-be-developed-quantum-computer
---

# When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

Live · $46,051 traded · listed on Kalshi

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2040 | 62% | 64¢ on Kalshi | 64¢ |
| Before 2035 | 51% | 53¢ on Kalshi | 53¢ |
| Before 2030 | 36% | 38¢ on Kalshi | 38¢ |
| Before 2027 | 3% | 3¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4630?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-the-first-useful-quantum-computer-be-developed-quantum-computer.

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