---
title: "When will the next US recession start?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/when-will-the-next-us-recession-start-next-recession
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-31T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 520170.39
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:57:44+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-the-next-us-recession-start-next-recession
---

# When will the next US recession start?

Live · $520,170 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 6% | 8.8¢ on Kalshi | 8.8¢ |
| Q4 2025 | 4% | 6.6¢ on Kalshi | 6.6¢ |
| Q2 2025 | 2% | 3.4¢ on Kalshi | 3.4¢ |
| Q4 2024 | 2% | 3¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ |
| Q3 2025 | 1% | 2.8¢ on Kalshi | 2.8¢ |
| Q1 2025 | — | 0.9¢ on Kalshi | 0.9¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4622?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-the-next-us-recession-start-next-recession.

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