---
title: "When will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada? — US aluminum tariffs on Canada"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/when-will-the-us-cut-the-50-aluminum-tariff-on-canada-us-aluminum-tariffs-on-canada
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-07-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:19:18+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-the-us-cut-the-50-aluminum-tariff-on-canada-us-aluminum-tariffs-on-canada
---

# When will the US cut the 50% aluminum tariff on Canada? — US aluminum tariffs on Canada

Live · $2 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Only reporting from the White House or the Federal Register qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

The market resolves on signing or publication of the qualifying instrument, not on its effective date.

Counts as Yes:
A flat rate cut on all or any defined subset of covered Canadian aluminum articles, including reinstatement of the August 2026 framework at 25%
A tariff-rate quota under which in-quota Canadian aluminum enters below 50%
A country exemption or North American metals arrangement that lowers or removes the duty on Canadian aluminum

Does NOT count:
The July 20, 2026 primary-aluminum onshoring incentive (approved firms importing at half the rate) or any expansion of it
Commerce's investment-commitment program allowing individual Canadian or Mexican producers to apply for a 25% rate
Individual importer exclusions under the Commerce exclusion process
Changes to derivative aluminum products only, with the base article rate unchanged
Changes to US-content deductions or smelt-and-cast rules that leave the headline rate at 50%
Court rulings enjoining or vacating the tariff
Framework agreements, announcements, or press statements without a signed legal instrument

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | — | — | — |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | — | — | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1003671?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/when-will-the-us-cut-the-50-aluminum-tariff-on-canada-us-aluminum-tariffs-on-canada).

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