---
title: "Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/where-will-a-60-earthquake-occur-by-end-of-august
status: ended
trading_closes_at: 2026-09-03T23:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 28157.73
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-10T09:41:24+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/where-will-a-60-earthquake-occur-by-end-of-august
---

# Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?

Ended · $28,158 traded · listed on Polymarket

## Result

Delisted by every venue without a result — this event will not resolve.

## About

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".

A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.

If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.

Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.

The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Philippines

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | — | — | 0.4¢ |
| No | — | — | 100¢ |

## Other markets

- Japan — 2 outcomes
- Peru — 2 outcomes
- Indonesia — 2 outcomes
- Chile — 2 outcomes
- Mexico — 2 outcomes
- United States — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/231014?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/where-will-a-60-earthquake-occur-by-end-of-august.

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