---
title: "Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/which-ai-companies-will-have-a-pareto-efficient-model-at-the-end-of-2026-on-dec-31-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-31T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 10809.57
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:27:58+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-ai-companies-will-have-a-pareto-efficient-model-at-the-end-of-2026-on-dec-31-2026
---

# Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? — On Dec 31, 2026

Live · $10,810 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 87% | 90¢ on Kalshi | 90¢ |
| Xiaomi | 57% | 62¢ on Kalshi | 62¢ |
| Moonshot AI | 33% | 35¢ on Kalshi | 35¢ |
| Alibaba | 17% | 21¢ on Kalshi | 21¢ |
| DeepSeek | 15% | 19¢ on Kalshi | 19¢ |
| InclusionAI | 11% | 15¢ on Kalshi | 15¢ |
| IBM | 3% | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |
| Anthropic | — | — | — |
| Google | — | — | — |
| Z AI | — | — | — |
| Meta | — | — | — |
| xAI | — | — | — |
| Tencent | — | — | — |
| StepFun | — | — | — |
| Mistral | — | — | — |
| Thinking Machines | — | — | — |
| MiniMax | — | — | — |
| NVIDIA | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/859295?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-ai-companies-will-have-a-pareto-efficient-model-at-the-end-of-2026-on-dec-31-2026).

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