---
title: "Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 187195.58
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:32:48+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026
---

# Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?

Live · $187,196 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88% | 90¢ on Polymarket | 90¢ |
| Yes | 12% | 14¢ on Polymarket | 14¢ |

## Other markets

- Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar — 2 outcomes
- Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar — 2 outcomes
- Ricardo Ruiz Velasco — 2 outcomes
- Audias Flores-Silva — 2 outcomes
- Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan — 2 outcomes
- Juan Reyes Mejía González — 2 outcomes
- Juan Pablo Ledezma — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/285856?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-cartel-leaders-will-be-arrested-in-2026.

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