---
title: "Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? — Before Jan 1, 2030"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/which-companies-will-have-the-top-ai-model-before-2030-before-jan-1-2030
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2030-01-01T04:58:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:31:27+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-companies-will-have-the-top-ai-model-before-2030-before-jan-1-2030
---

# Which companies will have the top AI model before 2030? — Before Jan 1, 2030

Live · $5 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Leading at any point after listing and before the deadline counts; multiple companies can resolve Yes. Artificial Analysis is used first, then Epoch AI and LiveBench under the fallback and tiebreaking rules. Preliminary or provisional scores do not count.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | — | — | — |
| Google | — | — | — |
| Meta | — | — | — |
| xAI | — | — | — |
| Alibaba | — | — | — |
| DeepSeek | — | — | — |
| Moonshot | — | — | — |
| Z AI | — | — | — |
| Xiaomi | — | — | — |
| StepFun | — | — | — |
| MiniMax | — | — | — |
| Mistral | — | — | — |
| NVIDIA | — | — | — |
| Amazon | — | — | — |
| Baidu | — | — | — |
| ByteDance | — | — | — |
| Thinking Machines | — | — | — |
| China Mobile | — | — | — |
| Institute of Foundation Models | — | — | — |
| Upstage | — | — | — |
| Tencent | — | — | — |
| InclusionAI | — | — | — |
| LongCat | — | — | — |
| Cohere | — | — | — |
| Inception | — | — | — |
| Arcee AI | — | — | — |
| Microsoft | — | — | — |
| Safe Superintelligence | — | — | — |
| Reflection AI | — | — | — |
| Essential AI | — | — | — |
| Prime Intellect | — | — | — |
| Huawei | — | — | — |
| LG AI Research | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/708998?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-companies-will-have-the-top-ai-model-before-2030-before-jan-1-2030.

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