---
title: "Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement? — Before Jan 1, 2027"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/which-companies-will-sign-a-venezuelan-oil-agreement-before-jan-1-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3110.69
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:39:33+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-companies-will-sign-a-venezuelan-oil-agreement-before-jan-1-2027
---

# Which companies will sign a Venezuelan oil agreement? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Live · $3,111 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency.

News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states the event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) is based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) is presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation.

A named company satisfies this criterion if it or a controlled affiliate signs a binding agreement that directly grants the named company or controlled affiliate an enforceable upstream ownership, working, concession, production-sharing, or comparable economic participation right to explore for, develop, or produce crude oil at a Venezuelan upstream asset. Associated obligations are permitted, but performance obligations alone do not qualify. The counterparty may be Venezuela, PDVSA, a PDVSA affiliate, or another party legally authorized to grant those rights.

A company statement or announcement without a signed binding agreement, a preliminary or nonbinding memorandum, negotiations, an expression of interest, due diligence, data-room access, a technical visit, a government license or sanctions authorization alone, financing, service-provider work, oil trading, refining, transport, or gas-only activity does NOT qualify.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shell | 62% | 62¢ on Kalshi | 62¢ |
| ExxonMobil | 18% | 22¢ on Kalshi | 22¢ |
| ConocoPhillips | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/450455?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-companies-will-sign-a-venezuelan-oil-agreement-before-jan-1-2027.

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