---
title: "Which countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026? — December 2026 vs December 2025"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/which-countries-us-treasury-holdings-will-increase-in-2026-december-2026-vs-december-2025
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-02-18T20:55:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 14389.42
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:22:01+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-countries-us-treasury-holdings-will-increase-in-2026-december-2026-vs-december-2025
---

# Which countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026? — December 2026 vs December 2025

Live · $14,389 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

For this market, an increase means that the December 2026 figure for the named holder is strictly greater than its prior-year figure in the first non-preliminary edition of the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities containing December 2026 data. Both figures will be taken from that same edition, including any revisions to the prior-year figure reflected there. “December 2026” refers to the table’s reporting period, not its publication date.

Values will be compared as published, in billions of U.S. dollars, without rounding. Holdings will be attributed exactly as Treasury reports them, without adjustment for custodial arrangements or beneficial ownership. For row matching, “Mainland China” corresponds to “China, Mainland,” “South Korea” corresponds to “Korea, South,” and “UAE” corresponds to “United Arab Emirates.”

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 98% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| India | 56% | 61¢ on Kalshi | 61¢ |
| Norway | 40% | 44¢ on Kalshi | 44¢ |
| South Korea | 34% | 38¢ on Kalshi | 38¢ |
| Mainland China | 16% | 17¢ on Kalshi | 17¢ |
| Japan | 13% | 17¢ on Kalshi | 17¢ |
| France | — | — | — |
| UAE | — | — | — |
| Saudi Arabia | — | — | — |
| Taiwan | — | — | — |
| Canada | — | — | — |
| Brazil | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/522077?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-countries-us-treasury-holdings-will-increase-in-2026-december-2026-vs-december-2025.

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