---
title: "Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/which-countries-will-have-their-us-travel-advisory-downgraded-in-2026-before-jan-1-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 79927
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:44:14+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-countries-will-have-their-us-travel-advisory-downgraded-in-2026-before-jan-1-2027
---

# Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Live · $79,927 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2027 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uganda | 36% | 36¢ on Kalshi | 36¢ |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 14% | 16¢ on Kalshi | 16¢ |
| Syria | 14% | 16¢ on Kalshi | 16¢ |
| Lebanon | 10% | 12¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ |
| Yemen | 7% | 9.6¢ on Kalshi | 9.6¢ |
| South Sudan | 6% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Iraq | 5% | 7.7¢ on Kalshi | 7.7¢ |
| Russia | 4% | 7.2¢ on Kalshi | 7.2¢ |
| Iran | 4% | 6.7¢ on Kalshi | 6.7¢ |
| Afghanistan | 4% | 6.2¢ on Kalshi | 6.2¢ |
| Ukraine | 3% | 5.9¢ on Kalshi | 5.9¢ |
| Burma (Myanmar) | 3% | 4.9¢ on Kalshi | 4.9¢ |
| Gaza | 3% | 4.9¢ on Kalshi | 4.9¢ |
| Libya | 3% | 4.9¢ on Kalshi | 4.9¢ |
| Haiti | 3% | 4.5¢ on Kalshi | 4.5¢ |
| Sudan | 2% | 3¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ |
| North Korea | 2% | 3¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ |
| Somalia | 2% | 2.9¢ on Kalshi | 2.9¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/293303?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-countries-will-have-their-us-travel-advisory-downgraded-in-2026-before-jan-1-2027.

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