---
title: "Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? — Dec 31, 2029 at 10:00 AM ET"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/which-country-will-have-the-best-llm-at-the-end-of-the-decade-dec-31-2029-at-1000-am-et
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2029-12-31T14:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1942.2
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:37:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-country-will-have-the-best-llm-at-the-end-of-the-decade-dec-31-2029-at-1000-am-et
---

# Which country will have the best LLM at the end of the decade? — Dec 31, 2029 at 10:00 AM ET

Live · $1,942 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers. A model counts for the country where its credited organization is headquartered or, for a division, subsidiary or brand, where its ultimate parent is headquartered (e.g., Google DeepMind counts for the United States). If that country is not listed, every market resolves No.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 67% | 71¢ on Kalshi | 71¢ |
| China | 30% | 34¢ on Kalshi | 34¢ |
| France | 4% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| United Arab Emirates | 3% | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |
| South Korea | 3% | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/782101?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-country-will-have-the-best-llm-at-the-end-of-the-decade-dec-31-2029-at-1000-am-et).

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