---
title: "Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/which-leaders-will-leave-office-in-2026-before-jan-1-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-02T03:17:49+00:00
total_volume_usd: 4149893.58
venues: ["Gemini", "Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:07:37+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-leaders-will-leave-office-in-2026-before-jan-1-2027
---

# Which leaders will leave office in 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Live · $4,149,894 traded · listed on Gemini, Kalshi

## About

This Kalshi-anchored market, also listed on Gemini, asks which sitting world leaders will officially announce their departure or actually leave office before January 1, 2027. Each named leader trades as an independent Yes/No contract, with Kalshi carrying the bulk of the roughly $4.0 million in volume against a much thinner $37,800 on Gemini.

The board is topped by near-certainties tied to scheduled transitions or announced exits: Gustavo Petro at 99.9%, Keir Starmer at 99.6%, and Aleksandar Vučić at 94.0%, all priced on Kalshi. The next tier is genuinely contested, with Christopher Luxon at a consensus 47.5% and Benjamin Netanyahu at 46.5% — effectively coin flips. Below that, Sébastien Lecornu sits at 21.0% and Friedrich Merz at 17.5%, while long-tenured incumbents like Xi Jinping (3.5%), Narendra Modi (3.5%), and Kim Jong Un (2.5%) trade as clear underdogs to depart.

Cross-platform pricing is remarkably tight where both venues list a name, with most spreads under two points; the widest gaps appear on Luxon, Merz, and Milei, all around one to two points. Overall, Kalshi and Gemini agree closely on the ranking, with divergence concentrated in the mid-probability contested names rather than the top or tail.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-23; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Gemini | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Luxon | 37% | 39¢ on Gemini | 39¢ | 39¢ |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 37% | 37¢ on Kalshi | 39¢ | 37¢ |
| Pedro Sánchez | 16% | 18¢ on Gemini | 18¢ | 16¢ |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 12% | 13¢ on Kalshi | — | 13¢ |
| Edi Rama | 11% | 13¢ on Kalshi | — | 13¢ |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel | 8% | 8.9¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ | 8.9¢ |
| Delcy Rodriguez | 7% | 7.8¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ | 7.8¢ |
| Rodrigo Paz Pereira | 6% | 7.7¢ on Kalshi | 8¢ | 7.7¢ |
| Denis Sassou Nguesso | 5% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ | 6¢ |
| Ahmad al-Sharaa | 4% | 6¢ on Gemini | 6¢ | 6.3¢ |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 4% | 4.7¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ | 4.7¢ |
| Friedrich Merz | 4% | 4.7¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ | 4.7¢ |
| Mette Frederiksen | 4% | 5.7¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ | 5.7¢ |
| Félix Tshisekedi | 4% | 5.7¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ | 5.7¢ |
| Giorgia Meloni | 4% | 4.6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ | 4.6¢ |
| Jens-Frederik Nielsen | 4% | 5.4¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ | 5.4¢ |
| Daniel Noboa | 4% | 6¢ on Gemini | 6¢ | 6.3¢ |
| Xi Jinping | 3% | 1.4¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ | 1.4¢ |
| Narendra Modi | 3% | 3.7¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ | 3.7¢ |
| Lee Jae Myung | 3% | 4.9¢ on Kalshi | 50¢ | 4.9¢ |
| Sanae Takaichi | 3% | 4¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ | 4¢ |
| Cyril Ramaphosa | 3% | 4.5¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ | 4.5¢ |
| Javier Milei | 3% | 4.4¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ | 4.4¢ |
| Vladimir Putin | 3% | 3¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ | 3¢ |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 3% | 5¢ on Gemini | 5¢ | 3¢ |
| Ramzan Kadyrov | 3% | 4¢ on Kalshi | — | 4¢ |
| Irfaan Ali | 2% | 3.9¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ | 3.9¢ |
| Emmanuel Macron | 2% | 2.6¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ | 2.6¢ |
| Claudia Sheinbaum | 2% | 2.7¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ | 2.7¢ |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 2% | 1.9¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ | 1.9¢ |
| Kim Jong Un | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ | 2¢ |
| Frederik X | 1% | 1.7¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ | 1.7¢ |
| Mark Carney | 1% | 1.9¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ | 1.9¢ |
| Nayib Bukele | 1% | 1.1¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ | 1.1¢ |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 1% | 1.9¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ | 1.9¢ |
| Gustavo Petro | — | — | — | — |
| Keir Starmer | — | — | — | — |
| Aleksandar Vučić | — | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Gemini](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/300234?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/293337?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-leaders-will-leave-office-in-2026-before-jan-1-2027).

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