---
title: "Which lists will win a Knesset seat? — On Oct 27, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/which-lists-will-win-a-knesset-seat-on-oct-27-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-10-27T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 22374.94
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:10:24+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-lists-will-win-a-knesset-seat-on-oct-27-2026
---

# Which lists will win a Knesset seat? — On Oct 27, 2026

Live · $22,375 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either:
The time for legal challenges has expired
Challenges have been resolved
The member has taken their seat

Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature.

Joint candidate lists count as single entities; their seats are not credited separately to constituent parties. A newly formed joint or merged list is a separate entity. A name change alone does not change a list's identity. A politician elected on another list does not count for their former party or list. Surplus-vote agreements and post-election coalitions do not combine seat outcomes. A seat won by an unlisted list does not resolve any listed market Yes.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 98% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| Together | 98% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| Shas | 97% | 97¢ on Kalshi | 97¢ |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 96% | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ |
| Ra'am | 95% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| RZP-Zehut | 87% | 91¢ on Kalshi | 91¢ |
| Reservists–Economic Party | 42% | 46¢ on Kalshi | 46¢ |
| Noam for Israel | 7% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ |
| Religious Zionist Party | 5% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad) | — | — | — |
| Otzma Yehudit | — | — | — |
| The Democrats | — | — | — |
| United Torah Judaism | — | — | — |
| Yashar | — | — | — |
| A Place for All of Us | — | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |
| Blue and White | — | — | — |
| Haredi Public | — | — | — |
| Israel First | — | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |
| New Economic Party | — | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |
| People of Israel | — | 75¢ on Kalshi | 75¢ |
| Unity | — | — | — |
| Zehut | — | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |
| Zionist Home–The Reservists | — | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/376117?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-lists-will-win-a-knesset-seat-on-oct-27-2026.

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