---
title: "Which Senate races will be within 5 points? — Nov 3, 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/which-senate-races-will-be-within-5-points-nov-3-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-03T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 21497.33
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:32:19+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-senate-races-will-be-within-5-points-nov-3-2026
---

# Which Senate races will be within 5 points? — Nov 3, 2026

Live · $21,497 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place finisher's vote share, measured in percentage points. Zero indicates a tie. Certified official results are used, subject to the contract's Fully-Conducted Elections and accelerated-resolution provisions.

For ranked-choice voting, the vote shares in the last round actually conducted are used.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 83% | 94¢ on Kalshi | 94¢ |
| Iowa | 69% | 70¢ on Kalshi | 70¢ |
| Michigan | 63% | 66¢ on Kalshi | 66¢ |
| Kansas | 62% | 63¢ on Kalshi | 63¢ |
| Alaska | 58% | 60¢ on Kalshi | 60¢ |
| Ohio (special) | 57% | 59¢ on Kalshi | 59¢ |
| Maine | 55% | 58¢ on Kalshi | 58¢ |
| South Carolina | 51% | 55¢ on Kalshi | 55¢ |
| Florida (special) | 38% | 40¢ on Kalshi | 40¢ |
| New Hampshire | 32% | 37¢ on Kalshi | 37¢ |
| North Carolina | 12% | 14¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ |
| Nebraska | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/664819?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/which-senate-races-will-be-within-5-points-nov-3-2026.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.