---
title: "Who leaves the Trump administration first: Rubio or Hegseth?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-leaves-the-trump-administration-first-rubio-or-hegseth
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 0
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:18:22+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-leaves-the-trump-administration-first-rubio-or-hegseth
---

# Who leaves the Trump administration first: Rubio or Hegseth?

Live · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to the name of the individual who leaves the Trump administration first.

This market will resolve to "Rubio" if Marco Rubio leaves the Trump administration before Pete Hegseth leaves the Trump administration. This market will resolve to "Hegseth" if Pete Hegseth leaves the Trump administration before Marco Rubio leaves the Trump administration.

An individual will be considered to have left the Trump administration if it is announced that they will leave the Trump Administration, or they otherwise cease to be a member of the administration. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal will count as of the time of the announcement, regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If both individuals remain in the Trump administration uninterruptedly from market creation through December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both individuals announce their departure on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve 50-50.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hegseth | 78% | 82¢ on Polymarket | 82¢ |
| Rubio | 22% | 26¢ on Polymarket | 26¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1169078?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-leaves-the-trump-administration-first-rubio-or-hegseth).

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