---
title: "Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-will-be-charged-with-a-federal-crime-in-2026-before-jan-1-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1774483.88
venues: ["Gemini", "Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T14:07:50+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-charged-with-a-federal-crime-in-2026-before-jan-1-2027
---

# Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Live · $1,774,484 traded · listed on Gemini, Kalshi

## About

This Kalshi-led market, also listed on Gemini, asks which named individuals will be formally charged with a federal crime before January 1, 2027. Each listed person resolves independently, so the probabilities reflect the standalone chance of an indictment for each name rather than a winner-take-all race. Total volume sits near $1.39 million, almost all of it on Kalshi.

By raw per-platform pricing, Anthony Fauci is the clearest frontrunner at 56.0% on Kalshi and 57.0% on Gemini, followed by John Brennan around 35–36% and Letitia James at 27–28%. Kalshi also carries a standalone line for Dan J. Sullivan at 64.0%, which is not mirrored on Gemini. Further down the board, names like Jack Smith (24–25%), Ilhan Omar (~21%), and Lisa Cook (17–18%) cluster in the teens and twenties, while figures such as Joe Biden (4.0–6.4%), Hillary Clinton (~7%), and Jerome Powell (4.0–6.0%) sit near the bottom.

Cross-platform pricing on Kalshi and Gemini is tight for most names, with the largest visible gap being Joe Biden at roughly 2.4 points. The takeaway: Kalshi and Gemini broadly agree, with Fauci pricing as the most likely person on the list to face a federal charge in 2026.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-21; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Gemini | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cassidy Hutchinson | 42% | 45¢ on Kalshi | — | 45¢ |
| John Brennan | 34% | 30¢ on Kalshi | 40¢ | 30¢ |
| Anthony Fauci | 20% | 21¢ on Kalshi | 22¢ | 21¢ |
| Leon Black | 17% | 17¢ on Kalshi | — | 17¢ |
| Ilhan Omar | 15% | 16¢ on Kalshi | 17¢ | 16¢ |
| Lisa Cook | 13% | 14¢ on Gemini | 14¢ | 16¢ |
| Dan J. Sullivan | 12% | 13¢ on Kalshi | — | 13¢ |
| James Clapper | 12% | 13¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ | 13¢ |
| Alvin Bragg | 12% | 8.4¢ on Kalshi | 17¢ | 8.4¢ |
| Letitia James | 12% | 14¢ on Kalshi | 15¢ | 14¢ |
| Gustavo Petro | 12% | 13¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ | 13¢ |
| Peter Strzok | 12% | 13¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ | 13¢ |
| Jack Smith | 10% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ | 11¢ |
| Chris Krebs | 10% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ | 11¢ |
| Fani Willis | 10% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ | 11¢ |
| Lisa Monaco | 9% | 12¢ on Kalshi | — | 12¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 9% | 10¢ on Kalshi | — | 10¢ |
| Jennifer Siebel Newsom | 9% | 10¢ on Kalshi | — | 10¢ |
| Miles Taylor | 8% | 11¢ on Kalshi | — | 11¢ |
| Keith Ellison | 7% | 3.6¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ | 3.6¢ |
| Elissa Slotkin | 7% | 8.7¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ | 8.7¢ |
| Reid Hoffman | 7% | 9¢ on Kalshi | — | 9¢ |
| Tim Walz | 6% | 8¢ on Gemini | 8¢ | 8.8¢ |
| Hunter Biden | 6% | 7¢ on Gemini | 7¢ | 7¢ |
| Liz Cheney | 6% | 6.7¢ on Kalshi | 8¢ | 6.7¢ |
| Mark Kelly | 5% | 6.9¢ on Kalshi | — | 6.9¢ |
| Christopher Wray | 5% | 6.7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ | 6.7¢ |
| E. Jean Carroll | 5% | 7¢ on Kalshi | — | 7¢ |
| Andrew Weissmann | 5% | 6¢ on Kalshi | — | 6¢ |
| George Soros | 5% | 6¢ on Kalshi | — | 6¢ |
| Tucker Carlson | 5% | 6.8¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ | 6.8¢ |
| Hillary Clinton | 5% | 5.9¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ | 5.9¢ |
| Mark Milley | 4% | 4.9¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ | 4.9¢ |
| Barack Obama | 4% | 5.5¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ | 5.5¢ |
| Bill Clinton | 4% | 5.1¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ | 5.1¢ |
| Joe Kent | 4% | 5¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ | 5¢ |
| Adam Schiff | 4% | 4¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ | 4¢ |
| Pam Bondi | 3% | 3.8¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ | 3.8¢ |
| Jacob Frey | 3% | 4.8¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ | 4.8¢ |
| Joe Biden | 3% | 3¢ on Gemini | 3¢ | 3.3¢ |
| Jerome Powell | 3% | 3.8¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ | 3.8¢ |
| Chris Christie | 2% | 3¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ | 3¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Gemini](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/299998?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/291476?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-charged-with-a-federal-crime-in-2026-before-jan-1-2027.

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