---
title: "Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election? — Before Oct 28, 2030"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-will-be-israeli-defense-minister-after-the-election-before-oct-28-2030
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2030-10-28T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3021.8
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:07:13+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-israeli-defense-minister-after-the-election-before-oct-28-2030
---

# Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election? — Before Oct 28, 2030

Live · $3,022 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

Only reporting from The Times of Israel qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

This market concerns the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, including a government formed after repeat elections. A new government is formed when the Knesset expresses confidence in it. A retained incumbent counts if appointed in that new government; continuation in the outgoing government does not.

Minister of Defense means the holder of the Defense portfolio, including a Prime Minister who also formally holds it. An acting substitute, deputy minister, additional minister within the Defense Ministry, or Minister of National Security does not count. If the portfolio is initially vacant, the first person subsequently appointed to it in that government counts. Nominations, coalition agreements, intended appointments, and hypothetical scenarios do not qualify as taking office. Later replacements do not change the first officeholder.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Katz | 29% | 33¢ on Kalshi | 33¢ |
| Naftali Bennett | 24% | 28¢ on Kalshi | 28¢ |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 21% | 26¢ on Kalshi | 26¢ |
| Itamar Ben-Gvir | 5% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |
| Benny Gantz | — | — | — |
| Gadi Eisenkot | — | — | — |
| Ofer Winter | — | — | — |
| Yair Golan | — | — | — |
| Yoav Gallant | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/384848?via=md)

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Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-israeli-defense-minister-after-the-election-before-oct-28-2030.

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