---
title: "Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? — Before Nov 7, 2028"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-will-be-the-first-democrat-listed-to-announce-a-presidential-run-before-nov-7-2028
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-11-07T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 89944.21
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T16:42:16+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-the-first-democrat-listed-to-announce-a-presidential-run-before-nov-7-2028
---

# Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? — Before Nov 7, 2028

Live · $89,944 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Beshear | 24% | 25¢ on Kalshi | 25¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg | 23% | 26¢ on Kalshi | 26¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 14% | 15¢ on Kalshi | 15¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | 8% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ |
| Josh Shapiro | 5% | 8.9¢ on Kalshi | 8.9¢ |
| Wes Moore | 5% | 7.2¢ on Kalshi | 7.2¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 1% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Kamala Harris | 1% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 1% | 1.9¢ on Kalshi | 1.9¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/292810?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-the-first-democrat-listed-to-announce-a-presidential-run-before-nov-7-2028.

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