---
title: "Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes) — Before Nov 1, 2028"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-will-be-the-first-democrat-listed-to-announce-a-presidential-run-more-strikes-before-nov-1-2028
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-11-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 46879.82
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:48:26+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-the-first-democrat-listed-to-announce-a-presidential-run-more-strikes-before-nov-1-2028
---

# Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes) — Before Nov 1, 2028

Live · $46,880 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

This list is fixed and no new strikes will be added.

A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rahm Emanuel | 20% | 22¢ on Kalshi | 22¢ |
| Ro Khanna | 15% | 17¢ on Kalshi | 17¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 13% | 14¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ |
| Andy Beshear | 11% | 12¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ |
| Kamala Harris | 6% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Cory Booker | 3% | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 2% | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | — | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Wes Moore | — | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Josh Shapiro | — | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Gretchen Whitmer | — | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| J.B. Pritzker | — | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Mark Kelly | — | — | — |
| James Talarico | — | — | — |
| Jasmine Crockett | — | — | — |
| Graham Platner | — | — | — |
| Jon Stewart | — | — | — |
| Michelle Obama | — | — | — |
| Beto O'Rourke | — | — | — |
| Mitch Landrieu | — | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |
| Stephen A. Smith | — | — | — |
| Mark Cuban | — | — | — |
| Chris Murphy | — | — | — |
| Ruben Gallego | — | — | — |
| Elissa Slotkin | — | — | — |
| Raphael Warnock | — | — | — |
| Andrew Yang | — | — | — |
| Roy Cooper | — | — | — |
| Gina Raimondo | — | — | — |
| Jared Polis | — | — | — |
| Amy Klobuchar | — | — | — |
| Elizabeth Warren | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/292821?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-the-first-democrat-listed-to-announce-a-presidential-run-more-strikes-before-nov-1-2028.

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