---
title: "Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T04:59:59+00:00
total_volume_usd: 98989693.24
venues: ["Gemini", "Kalshi", "Limitless", "Polymarket", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:02:56+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election
---

# Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Live · $98,989,693 traded · listed on Gemini, Kalshi, Limitless, Polymarket, Polymarket US

## About

This market asks who will hold the Israeli premiership after the country's October 2026 parliamentary election, with resolution tied to formal swearing-in following coalition negotiations. Each outcome represents a possible individual, while "No one" captures the scenario in which no government forms before the market's late-2027 deadline, reflecting the real possibility of prolonged coalition deadlock.

Currently "No one" is the consensus favourite at 46.5%, priced almost identically across platforms (Kalshi 46.5%), underscoring how unresolved the post-election picture remains. Gadi Eisenkot, the Yashar party leader, sits close behind at 46.0% consensus, though pricing varies sharply by venue — Limitless and Polymarket put him near 56–57%, while Gemini and Kalshi are closer to 46%, a cross-platform spread of nearly 11 points. This gap likely reflects timing differences in updating after the vote. Netanyahu trails at a 19.8% consensus but with an even wider 20.7-point spread, ranging from just 9.5% on Kalshi to over 30% on Polymarket. Coverage of the October 27 election showed neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his main rival Gadi Eisenkot within reach of the 61 seats needed for a governing majority, with exit polls indicating a near-tie between the two blocs, which explains why markets remain split between "No one," reflecting coalition gridlock, and Eisenkot, reflecting his bloc's narrow post-election edge.

Taken together, the data shows a genuinely contested, still-unsettled race where platforms broadly agree no clear winner has emerged, but disagree meaningfully on how likely Eisenkot is to ultimately form a government.

_AI-written summary written 2026-11-05; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Gemini | Kalshi | Limitless | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 56% | 52¢ on Kalshi | 54¢ | 52¢ | 62¢ | 63¢ | 62¢ |
| No one | 39% | 39¢ on Kalshi | — | 39¢ | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 20% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 55¢ | 7¢ | 20¢ | 21¢ | 20¢ |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 7% | 3¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ | 3¢ | — | 12¢ | 16¢ |
| Naftali Bennett | 2% | 1¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ | 1¢ | 2.3¢ | 2.1¢ | 2¢ |
| Yossi Cohen | 0.2% | 0.3¢ on Polymarket | — | 1¢ | — | 0.3¢ | — |
| Israel Katz | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | — | 1¢ | — | 0.2¢ | — |
| Amir Ohana | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | 2¢ | 1¢ | — | 0.2¢ | — |
| Aviv Kohavi | 0.2% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | — | 1¢ | — | 0.2¢ | — |
| Yair Lapid | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 1¢ | 0.5¢ | 0.1¢ | 1¢ |
| Benny Gantz | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 1¢ | — | 0.1¢ | 1¢ |
| Yair Golan | — | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | — | 1¢ | 0.5¢ | 0.2¢ | — |
| Itamar Ben Gvir | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 1¢ | — | 0.1¢ | 1¢ |
| Gideon Sa’ar | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | — | — | 0.1¢ | 1¢ |
| Yariv Levin | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | — | — | 0.1¢ | — |
| Moshe Feiglin | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 2¢ | 1¢ | — | 0.1¢ | — |
| Ayelet Shaked | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 1¢ | — | 0.1¢ | 1¢ |
| Yoaz Hendel | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 1¢ | — | 0.1¢ | 1¢ |
| Nir Barkat | — | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | — | — | — | 0.2¢ | — |
| Gilad Erdan | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | — | — | 0.1¢ | — |
| Other | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuli Edelstein | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | — | 1¢ | — | — | — |
| Ofer Winter | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | — | — | 0.1¢ | — |
| Daniel Hagari | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | 1¢ | — | 0.1¢ | — |
| Eli Cohen | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | — | — | — | 0.1¢ | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Gemini](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/481160?via=md)
- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/293027?via=md)
- [Limitless](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/19138?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4881?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/299730?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election).

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