---
title: "Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? — Before Jan 1, 2028"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-burnham-cabinet-before-jan-1-2028
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 42483.1
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T07:20:19+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-burnham-cabinet-before-jan-1-2028
---

# Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet? — Before Jan 1, 2028

Live · $42,483 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

A member leaves the Cabinet upon the qualifying announcement of their resignation, dismissal, removal, non-reappointment, or other formal cessation of Cabinet membership. A change of portfolio or position within the Cabinet alone does not count.

If two or more members leave on the same calendar date and the Source Agencies do not establish a clear chronological order, the tied member markets settle according to the Contract's split-settlement provisions. If no eligible member leaves during the specified period, all member markets resolve to No.

A temporary absence or leave where the member is expected to resume their Cabinet position does not count. Speculative or unconfirmed reports of a departure do not count. If the Prime Minister leaves office or the Cabinet is otherwise dissolved or wholly reconstituted before an individual member satisfies the Payout Criterion, all listed individual-member markets resolve to No.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Healey | 13% | 16¢ on Kalshi | 16¢ |
| Miatta Fahnbulleh | 8% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ |
| Angela Eagle | 6% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |
| Lucy Powell | 6% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |
| Heidi Alexander | 5% | 8¢ on Kalshi | 8¢ |
| Lisa Nandy | 4% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Alan Campbell | 4% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Indeterminate | — | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Louise Haigh | — | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Wes Streeting | — | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Yvette Cooper | — | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Pat McFadden | — | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Jonathan Reynolds | — | 4¢ on Kalshi | 4¢ |
| Angela Rayner | — | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Chris Bryant | — | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |
| Stephen Kinnock | — | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Angela Smith | — | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Bridget Phillipson | — | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |
| Alex Norris | — | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Anneliese Midgley | — | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Ed Miliband | — | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |
| Douglas Alexander | — | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Shabana Mahmood | — | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/311623?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-burnham-cabinet-before-jan-1-2028.

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